I am betting that when this date is mentioned that the first thing that would come to anyone's mind is the coup/not a coup debate... To put this to rest, as far as I am concerned I believe it is ironic that those who lost a lot of time on this debate are the same ones who argue they couldn't care less for what everybody else thinks. I also believe that even though on June 30th, massive demonstrations took place and that they were maybe larger than the ones that toppled Mubarak, however, a coup is a coup and July 3rd fits textbook definitions of it. Only time will tell if it's a benign coup, where military goes back to its barracks in favor of a democratically elected leader, or the more standard type of coup, which brings the military or its associates to power...
I haven't written much since the presidential elections, when Morsi won, not for lack of things to write about but from a sense of reluctant acceptance. I have watched with resignation as the country fell slowly into an abyss of social, political and economic chaos. To be fair, I am sure elements of the feloul/deep state (remnants of the Mubarak regime) have contributed to this fall, but what enabled them is the smug way Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) used in dealing with any opposition. For Morsi and the MB, if you haven't won the presidency or have enough seats in the Shura Council/Lower House of parliament (Since the Upper/People's assembly was dissolved) then you have no say, we won and you have to deal with it. Never mind, Morsi could not have won without the support of the same opposition he's marginalizing and painting with the same brush as felool. Never mind, the lower house was voted in by a margin of the population since it never had a real role in Egyptian politics. Never mind, Morsi has promised a million promises to the people and opposition and broken every one of them...
Anyhow, here we are now, at a place I would have rather not be in after January 25th. We're back to the army being a political actor. We have tried that before and look where it got us; a point the MB spokesman is fond of making. Never mind again, they were the only ones supporting SCAF's road plan after January 25th and painted agreement on every referendum as one that determines the future of Islam, in a majority Muslim country!!! Anyhow, we're back to the army being on the streets, an army which is used to dealing with enemies not its own countrymen, an army that when it sees one weapon, it fires a thousand shots. I am not surprised at what happened at the presidential guards, it happened before in every confrontation with revolutionaries since January 25th. Only then, the MB wasn't that vocal about it. I am only saddened that some "liberals" now are doing what the MB did before, making excuses for loss of Egyptian lives. It seems that we are all dictators at heart, we believe in democracy and human rights when it suits us. It seems that after 30 years of abuse, we're all glad to be playing the role of the abuser. I have never before understood how victims of abuse can turn into abusers. Now I do.
7/18/2013
5/27/2012
Going through the Maze of Presidential Elections Results 2012
The unofficial results of the Egyptian presidential elections primary (first round)
could only be described as both shocking and anticlimactic for many including
me, even though I have to concede it’s no big surprise (after the parliamentary
elections results) that we’ll have in the runoff the Muslim Brotherhood man Morsi,
AKA the spare tire since he was the backup man for their man candidate
El-Shater in case he got disqualified which actually happened. But, if you were
following the western media closely, you definitely were expecting Moussa, the
former foreign affairs minister, to be in the runoff if not the winner of the
primary. If you were following activists on Facebook or Twitter, you would have
expected at least one of the revolution’s figures in the runoff. Shafik’s win at
this stage was definitely a big surprise to many. I, myself, considered the
nightmarish scenario of Shafik vs. Morsi in the runoff as a distasteful joke;
well the joke was on me or us (if you share my views)!!
So assuming a modicum of fairness, I have tried to think
about the results. The way I see it, Morsi with all the might of the
brotherhood behind him managed to get only a quarter of the votes in the
primary. Shafik with all the dead, the army conscripts and also some legally
alive registered voters (to be fair) managed to get almost another quarter. Sabahi,
the aspiring Nasserist, and Abol Fotoh, the self-proclaimed moderate Isalmist
with liberal inclination, got 21 and 18% respectively. Moussa who was basking
in international attention would have fared a lot better if we allowed the
western media to vote, but as luck or should I say elections rules would have
it, they were not allowed to do so and Moussa ended up bringing the rear of the
candidates who had some potential to succeed with 11% of the votes.
What these results tell us is that no single candidate had the
majority of voters backing him (whatever he/his supporters claim). The highest
percentage being only a quarter of those who voted (who are already only 43% of
registered voters). The difference in the vote percentage (with Moussa out of
the equation) between the highest and lowest is 7%. So where are we headed to? Is
Egypt going to be stuck forever in the dichotomous power struggle between the
Muslim Brotherhood and the Army? Faced with the worst case scenario, who will
people choose in the runoff?
5/05/2012
Ministry of Defense Fiasco
The Ministry of Defense demonstrations, which started by followers of Presidential hopeful Hazem Abu Ismail (whose mother acquired American nationality led to his exclusion from the race), has ended tragically yesterday. The demonstrations, which started peacefully enough with mildly aggressive rhetoric demanding the chnage of article 28 of the constitution (that allows no challenge to the of the Elections High Committee), picked up some liberal folowers as the days went. As usual, for some unfathomable reason, agression started when unknown elements (??) began to attack the demonstrators. Demonstrators attacked back and more aggression ensued. Then, the army cracked down an demostrators yesterday. The end result: a renewal of the aggression cycle, more than 300 arrests in addition to a 100s of injuries and a number of dead.
At this point, I seriously doubt all efforts to ratinalize or analyze the events that happened. The conspiracy theories flying around assume extremely high levels of intelligence on the part of SCAF, Muslim Brotherhood and Salsfis among others while I believe that the outcome we have reached can only tell of the extreme stupidity of most of the political actors at this point. No one can unleash chaos ande then control it; this defies the nature of chaos. A number of the activists seem too happy with their newly found voice and urge others to take uncalculated steps and in certain instances even irrational ones. The call for agressive confrontation with the army is really beyond rational thinking which brings to mind Einstein saying :“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe.”
At this point, I seriously doubt all efforts to ratinalize or analyze the events that happened. The conspiracy theories flying around assume extremely high levels of intelligence on the part of SCAF, Muslim Brotherhood and Salsfis among others while I believe that the outcome we have reached can only tell of the extreme stupidity of most of the political actors at this point. No one can unleash chaos ande then control it; this defies the nature of chaos. A number of the activists seem too happy with their newly found voice and urge others to take uncalculated steps and in certain instances even irrational ones. The call for agressive confrontation with the army is really beyond rational thinking which brings to mind Einstein saying :“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe.”
2/05/2012
Port Said and Hope
Holding on to hopes is becoming almost impossible after what happened in Port Said. A football match turned war zone with more than 70 casualities, many of them quite young. The youngest was a fun loving eternally smiling 14 year old called "Anas" (meaning amiability in English).
Egyptians toppled Mubarak in their search for justice, dignity and a better life. A year after, none of these objectives were achieved not even partially. Egypt seems to be lost in a vortex of social, economic and political instability. Both by design and mismanagement, SCAF has nearly sucked the life out of January 25th revolution. But, Egyptians are nothing but resilient and are also known to defy all expectations; our revolution itself is the proof of this very fact. So, even after what happened in Port Said, I choose to hold on to the tiniest bit of hope once more...
Egyptians toppled Mubarak in their search for justice, dignity and a better life. A year after, none of these objectives were achieved not even partially. Egypt seems to be lost in a vortex of social, economic and political instability. Both by design and mismanagement, SCAF has nearly sucked the life out of January 25th revolution. But, Egyptians are nothing but resilient and are also known to defy all expectations; our revolution itself is the proof of this very fact. So, even after what happened in Port Said, I choose to hold on to the tiniest bit of hope once more...
11/21/2011
Tahrir, Egypt
Tahrir which became a symbol for victory with its role in the overthrow of a tyrant, had become overnight a battle field! It is really hard to try and analyze what's happening now in Egypt. With the events of November 19th, the people who lost their lives and those who were wounded and even lost their eyes in an onslaught rarely seen since the events that led to the demise of Mubarak (with the exception of Maspero's events), I am seriously worried about where we are headed. Can SCAF really be that callow!! Haven't they realized that such an onslaught would reunite everybody against them (even though the Muslim Brotherhood seem to be napping it off which I doubt will continue for long if they want to be seen as being on the side of the people)!!
I am hoping that the different and ever bickering political factions come out of their slumber and reunite to save what's left of the country before it's too late. WE NEED UNITY!!
I am hoping that the different and ever bickering political factions come out of their slumber and reunite to save what's left of the country before it's too late. WE NEED UNITY!!
11/13/2011
Egyptian Parliamentary Elections 2011
I can feel the anticipation mixed with elation for some and fear for others. I, myself, have a mixture of both; elation at having what I hope is going to be the first free election in a long time in Egypt and fear of chaos during the elections. The upcoming parliamentary elections has the NDP (the ex ruling party) almost barred (if not by law then by popular rejection) from entering and the Muslim Brotherhood running using their new party's name "Freedom and Justice" without fear of prosecution. The Muslim Brotherhood is also facing for the first time competition in terms of the use of religious symbolism and rhetoric in politics, from the Salafi (Muslim Traditionalists) party called El Nour or "The Light"!!! This is surely going to be fun to watch, having two entities claiming each represents Islam better than the other...
The liberals not to be outdone, have managed to form and then tear apart a number of coallitions that they have created with no forethought to their ideological differences as it seems, and are also competing with each other for mostly the same seats. One area (Heliopolis which everybody considers to have highly educated population) has a well known revolutionary who is also an award winner (Miss Mahfouz), a well known political writer and activist (Hamzawy), and twitter celebrity ( Salem @sandmonkey) running for the same seat!!!
To complicate matters further, the new electoral system which I can vouch that more than 80% of the population does not understand will surely lead to confusion on election day (or days since the military council in its infinite wisdom has divided the election process up to take several days).
So, I am sure nobody can really predict the outcome of this election including me... We'll have to wait and see and hope for the best or better yet keep working for the best.
The liberals not to be outdone, have managed to form and then tear apart a number of coallitions that they have created with no forethought to their ideological differences as it seems, and are also competing with each other for mostly the same seats. One area (Heliopolis which everybody considers to have highly educated population) has a well known revolutionary who is also an award winner (Miss Mahfouz), a well known political writer and activist (Hamzawy), and twitter celebrity ( Salem @sandmonkey) running for the same seat!!!
To complicate matters further, the new electoral system which I can vouch that more than 80% of the population does not understand will surely lead to confusion on election day (or days since the military council in its infinite wisdom has divided the election process up to take several days).
So, I am sure nobody can really predict the outcome of this election including me... We'll have to wait and see and hope for the best or better yet keep working for the best.
8/11/2011
The Polarization of Egyptian Society - The Failure of Liberals
For the past few months, a major divide has been growing in Egyptian society. On the eve of January 25th, there was an unparalleled sense of achievement and elation. The Egyptian people seemed united and proud of what they have accomplished; the overthrow of a tyrant. However, bit by bit, the people have started to stray from common goals and began to promote their opposing visions for a new Egypt. Opposing calls for a "religious state" and a "liberal state" have swamped every media channel in Egypt, with supporters of each camp abusing the other verbally and sterotyping their opponents. Liberals being labelled as anti-religion and/or atheists while the other camp is being labelled anti-democratic and archaic. Needless to say, the verabl war has led to the polarization of Egyptian society with the liberal state opponents on one side and the religious state's on the other.
Religion plays an important role in the Egyptians' lives (whether Muslim or Christian), with charities on both sides helping their communities and garnering more support for religious institutions and groups. The Muslim Brotherhood, which have been present whether clearly or underground on the Egyptian political scene even before the 1952 revolution or coup, has become energized by the overthrow of Mubarak and is assuming a large role in post January 25th Egypt. However, the Muslim Brotherhood has gained enough political experience and diplomacy throughout the years that has enabled it to present a more moderate image of itself and even garner the support of many for its political aspirations (whether local or international). So, if that's the case, where's the problem? And why all the hype and verbal wars?! The problem lies with the new entrants on the scene; the Salafis (the traditionalists may be a close translation even if not extremely accurate). The Salafis, who are completely new to the political scene and who have been kept underground by the old regime, have no political finesse nor real political aspirations and their only aim is to have a "religious state". They have been opposed to the overthrow of Mubarak because they interpret religious scripture as opposing to any attempts to overthrow the ruler. However, they are quite happy to come after that overthrow and demand to impose their view of what the new Egypt should be like. In their quest, they have painted all dissenting opinions as immoral non-religious and "Western" (definitely used with its historical imperialist connotations). So, that's mainly the religious camp with its newly labelled moderates (the Brotherhood) and its newly acquired extremists (the Salafis).
On the other side, the liberal camp, which is composed of a number of thinkers and writers, have managed to garner the support of a large section of the elite and of course the local businessmen. However, they have failed to simplify their dialogue to attract the larger masses in addition to the fact that they don't have much presence outside of Cairo nor have the warm connection that the Brotherhood has with the masses as a result of their charitable work. The other problem of the liberal camp lies with one of the major problems that I have mentioned in earlier posts, illiteracy. The fact that Egypt has a high rate of illiteracy makes liberals sound like they are talking gibberish and also makes it easier for the masses to believe the accusations being levelled at them. Even the forums used by each camp reflects the failure of liberals to present their ideas to the masses. While the Salafis are using mosques and door to door techniques, the liberals are using their writings to convince an illiterate population!!! Not only that, even when using the most widely spread media channel i.e. TV, the liberals are talking about ideologies and theories instead of talking to the people about what these mean for their daily lives.
I fear that the end of this unequal war (and I am sad to say that those who supposedly are more educated are the ones who have the losing hand), we will have a new Egypt other than the one I dreamt of with millions of others. I can see some people trying to make a change but they need a lot of support in their efforts. One of these is the Freedom Bus, a great intiative that centers around political awareness and education, which is basically a bus full of volunteers touring Egypt to educate people about politics and their rights. I am "praying" for similar initiatives to fill the void liberals are intent on ignoring. People need to know that democracy is not foreign to Islam and that it ultimately serves the interests of the people. They need to know that it is possible to combine both religion and democracy in an equation that's purely Egyptian and build a better Egypt that allows all to prosper whether materially or otherwise.
Religion plays an important role in the Egyptians' lives (whether Muslim or Christian), with charities on both sides helping their communities and garnering more support for religious institutions and groups. The Muslim Brotherhood, which have been present whether clearly or underground on the Egyptian political scene even before the 1952 revolution or coup, has become energized by the overthrow of Mubarak and is assuming a large role in post January 25th Egypt. However, the Muslim Brotherhood has gained enough political experience and diplomacy throughout the years that has enabled it to present a more moderate image of itself and even garner the support of many for its political aspirations (whether local or international). So, if that's the case, where's the problem? And why all the hype and verbal wars?! The problem lies with the new entrants on the scene; the Salafis (the traditionalists may be a close translation even if not extremely accurate). The Salafis, who are completely new to the political scene and who have been kept underground by the old regime, have no political finesse nor real political aspirations and their only aim is to have a "religious state". They have been opposed to the overthrow of Mubarak because they interpret religious scripture as opposing to any attempts to overthrow the ruler. However, they are quite happy to come after that overthrow and demand to impose their view of what the new Egypt should be like. In their quest, they have painted all dissenting opinions as immoral non-religious and "Western" (definitely used with its historical imperialist connotations). So, that's mainly the religious camp with its newly labelled moderates (the Brotherhood) and its newly acquired extremists (the Salafis).
On the other side, the liberal camp, which is composed of a number of thinkers and writers, have managed to garner the support of a large section of the elite and of course the local businessmen. However, they have failed to simplify their dialogue to attract the larger masses in addition to the fact that they don't have much presence outside of Cairo nor have the warm connection that the Brotherhood has with the masses as a result of their charitable work. The other problem of the liberal camp lies with one of the major problems that I have mentioned in earlier posts, illiteracy. The fact that Egypt has a high rate of illiteracy makes liberals sound like they are talking gibberish and also makes it easier for the masses to believe the accusations being levelled at them. Even the forums used by each camp reflects the failure of liberals to present their ideas to the masses. While the Salafis are using mosques and door to door techniques, the liberals are using their writings to convince an illiterate population!!! Not only that, even when using the most widely spread media channel i.e. TV, the liberals are talking about ideologies and theories instead of talking to the people about what these mean for their daily lives.
I fear that the end of this unequal war (and I am sad to say that those who supposedly are more educated are the ones who have the losing hand), we will have a new Egypt other than the one I dreamt of with millions of others. I can see some people trying to make a change but they need a lot of support in their efforts. One of these is the Freedom Bus, a great intiative that centers around political awareness and education, which is basically a bus full of volunteers touring Egypt to educate people about politics and their rights. I am "praying" for similar initiatives to fill the void liberals are intent on ignoring. People need to know that democracy is not foreign to Islam and that it ultimately serves the interests of the people. They need to know that it is possible to combine both religion and democracy in an equation that's purely Egyptian and build a better Egypt that allows all to prosper whether materially or otherwise.
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